Stock Buybacks Set Up AZO, ETSY, and KR for Year-End Highs
Many things can drive a stock’s price higher, fewer that can do it sustainably, and cash flow and capital return top the list. Capital return, in this case, share buybacks, can provide significant leverage for investors, but there is a catch. They must reduce the share count and be sustainable.
Companies with share buybacks that reduce the share count on a quarter-to-quarter basis tend also to sustain bullish stock price trends. This examination focuses on three such stocks and explores where investors might expect their share prices to be at the end of the year.
Autozone Is in the Zone With Its Buyback Plan
AutoZone Today
- 52-Week Range
- $2,980.10
▼
$4,388.11
- P/E Ratio
- 29.40
- Price Target
- $4,538.21
Autozone’s NYSE: AZO buyback activity reduced its share count by 1.7% year-over-year (YOY) in FQ4, approximately 3% for the year, and is supported by a large and growing network of auto parts and service centers. The company tends to sustain growth in both good and bad markets, generating ample cash flow in all circumstances. The outlook for FY2026 is another 8% top and bottom-line advance, with margins expected to widen over time. The consensus as of early October 2025 is also likely to be low due to the recently announced plan to accelerate store count growth.
The stock price outlook is bullish. MarketBeat data reveals a solid support base, with 26 analysts covering the stock, a Moderate Buy rating that has strengthened over the past year, and increasing price targets. The consensus forecast in early October is for an 8% increase in stock price, sufficient to put it at a new all-time high, in line with the prevailing trend. The prevailing trend has been in place since 2021 and is gaining momentum in late 2025, as shown by the convergence in MACD peaks.
Etsy Buybacks Provide Leverage for a Robust Rebound
Etsy Today
As of 10/2/2025 04:00 PM Eastern
- 52-Week Range
- $40.05
▼
$75.77
- P/E Ratio
- 58.50
- Price Target
- $58.69
Etsy NASDAQ: ETSY stock buybacks will likely slow in the upcoming quarters, but should not diminish the potential for a share price rebound. The aggressive pace of share reduction in the first half of the fiscal year trimmed 8.7% off the count for the second quarter and more than 20% for the year-to-date (YTD) period, providing a significant boost to shareholder leverage. The rebound may take time to gain momentum, but it will be driven by the implementation of AI services for consumers. The company has partnered with ChatGPT to offer seamless, AI-enabled checkout for select items and plans to expand the service over time.
Analysts’ sentiment trends align with a rebound in Etsy’s stock price. Although the consensus lags the market in early October, it is on the rise, up approximately 20% in the preceding quarter, following several quarters of downward activity. The latest revisions position this market as high as $81, sufficient to set a multi-year high and put it on track to cross a critical resistance point, completing a technical reversal.
Kroger: Resumes Buybacks With a Vengeance
Kroger Today
- 52-Week Range
- $54.88
▼
$74.90
- Dividend Yield
- 2.11%
- P/E Ratio
- 16.86
- Price Target
- $73.63
Kroger NYSE: KR curbed its buybacks in 2024 and early 2025 to preserve capital intended for its acquisition of Albertsons. It began to deploy the capital in favor of shareholders as soon as the merger plans fell apart, including the resumption of previous activity and an accelerated plan intended to make up for the pause. The critical details are that Kroger reduced its share count by nearly 8.4% in Q2 and, on a YTD period, expects to complete the $5 billion accelerated plan in the second half of the fiscal year and then continue at a moderated pace indefinitely.
Kroger’s analyst trends are bullish for the stock and driving it higher in 2025. MarketBeat reveals increased coverage, a bullish bias to the Hold rating, and rising price targets, with the consensus forecasting a 10% upside relative to critical support levels. The consensus is sufficient to match the all-time high, while the trends are leading to new highs near $85.
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